The Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2019: An Analysis of the Voting Motivations of Conservative Parliamentarians

The link to the final, published version of this article can be found here, but for those who do not have access you can access the pre-publication version here.

This article provides an empirical analysis of the voting behaviour of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary ballot of the Conservative Party leadership election of 2019.

We construct an original dataset for the parliamentary Conservative Party and then put forward hypotheses that will consider the possible Eurosceptic, party-political, economic and/or ideological motivations for the voting behaviour of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary ballot.

Our findings demonstrate that support for Johnson and Hunt was structured around age and voting behaviour in the European Union (EU) membership referendum, with support for Gove drawn from those who voted for May’s Withdrawal Agreement in the first meaningful vote.

Other factors, such as the economic impact of Brexit on constituencies and social liberalism, were not found to be statistically significant when it comes to determining patterns of support in the 2019 leadership election.

Published by David Jeffery

I am a Lecturer in British Politics at the University of Liverpool. I hold a PhD from Queen Mary University of London, which focused on the causes of Conservative electoral decline in Liverpool, from 1945 onwards.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: